Geopolitics is #1 Risk: Container Lines Face Consolidation as Trade Blocs Reshape Shipping

Container shipping enters 2026 facing a perfect storm: deepening geopolitical fractures, a historic vessel orderbook driving severe overcapacity, and the growing likelihood that services will soon return fully to the Suez Canal. Could this trigger a new wave of consolidation among smaller container lines? For freight buyers, this creates both uncertainty and potential negotiating leverage. In this episode, Mike King speaks with two voices from opposite ends of the shipping spectrum: James Hookham - Director of the Global Shippers Forum, representing cargo owners worldwide and demanding carriers deliver "solutions, not surcharges" Robbert van Trooijen - Founder of Inception Partners, former Maersk Regional President across Asia Pacific and Latin America for 15 years This episode is produced in partnership with Dimerco Express Group, a global 3PL specialising in Asia-Pacific supply chains. If your sourcing or manufacturing runs through Asia, they’re worth a look: https://www.dimerco.com   KEY INSIGHTS: ✅ Why geopolitics is now the #1 line item on shipper risk lists ✅ How US-China bloc competition forces countries like Indonesia and Panama to choose sides ✅ Suez partial reopening creating port chaos in China and Northern Europe ✅ Historic vessel orderbook (one-third of existing fleet) driving severe overcapacity ✅ "Gap between top 4 carriers and rest widening to uncomfortable size" - consolidation wave predicted ✅ Why Gemini's 90% reliability is great, but will it last and why aren’t other carriers doing better? ✅ How surcharges become carriers' profit protection tool when rates fall ✅ Contract strategy: 60/40 or 70/30 splits recommended, consider index-based deals ✅ Why APM Terminals earns 17% returns while carriers struggle with single digits ✅ Trade deal outcomes (USMCA, US-China, US-EU) will reshape 2026 freight flows TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Cold Open: Quote teases from James & Robbert 01:00 - Intro & Sponsor: Dimerco Express Group 02:00 - Guest Introductions: James Hookham & Robbert van Trooijen ACT 1: GEOPOLITICS & SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY 03:00 - Is geopolitics the #1 line item on shipper risk lists for 2026? 03:45 - Robbert on "Choke Points" book and economic warfare 04:15 - "The Fractured Age" - Two-bloc world led by US-China 05:00 - Panama's forced choice: Rhetoric vs reality 06:00 - James: Supply chains as targets in great power competition 07:15 - "If you like your job unpredictable... being a freight buyer is the place to be in 2026" 08:00 - WTF acronym: "We got to day three, didn't we Mike?" 09:00 - Overcapacity "might just come to a head in 26" 10:00 - Post-de minimis world: What it means for e-commerce shippers ACT 2: CONTAINER SHIPPING FUNDAMENTALS 12:45 - Pre-Chinese New Year rate bump: Seasonal or structural? 13:00 - "One third of existing fleet on order" - Historic overcapacity explained 14:00 - Choke points shifting from ocean to landside capacity 15:00 - Port congestion: China, Northern Europe, US infrastructure gaps 16:00 - Chinese port cranes controversy impacting US investments 16:45 - Has reliability actually improved? James' assessment 17:30 - Gemini alliance: Customer service "at the forefront of their thinking" 18:00 - Working capital tied up in invento...